Banks conducted cyberwar games to test their ability to fend off an attack, Reuters reports according to unnamed sources.

This follows a warning last month from the New York Department of Financial Services of retaliatory cyberattacks if Russia invades Ukraine and triggers US sanctions.

What kind of attack they might carry out is unspecified, with the banking system being a bit of a fortress when it comes to digital security.

Bitcoin is unlikely to be affected in any way, especially since Russian individuals and entities are estimated to hold between $67 billion and $200 billion in bitcoin.

Anatoly Aksakov, head of the Russian parliament’s lower house committee on the financial market, said in December that 5 trillion rubles had been invested by Russians in crypto.

More speculative estimates based on intellectual property analysis put it at 16.5 trillion rubles, worth $214 billion.

That’s a lot of money anyway, especially for a country where the median wage is only $250 a month and the minimum wage is $170.

Unlike national fiat currencies, bitcoin is global, so any state-sponsored attack on crypto exchanges would not affect any particular country, but the entire world, including the Russians.

That’s why it’s unlikely in our opinion, and that’s why bitcoin probably wouldn’t be affected if there was another invasion of Ukraine.

Except for supply and demand, an incursion could affect the national fiat currency of Russia and Ukraine.

We already had a taste of that recently when the markets kinda thought maybe they were really going to come in, sending their ruble down 10% and their stocks crashing before their Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announces a diplomatic meeting in Norman format.

That was before anything really happened. If something happens then Rub can fly up to maybe 100 per dollar or worse 150 while stocks can even crash 70% because you would think every foreign investor would exit or be forced out .

Sanctions are prepared in secret in the event of an incursion, so we don’t know what they would be, but they have been described as the most important in history. Modern history, no doubt.

All of this suggests that you would expect an influx of bitcoins, both in Russia and Ukraine, probably starting just as a decision is being made whether to invade further as there would likely be a crime. initiated, if not by men then their wives.

So bitcoin would probably know first, but it’s highly unlikely that anything will happen until at least February 15, next Tuesday.

It was then that Russian President Vladimir Putin met Olaf Scholz, the German Chancellor who, in this case, will represent all of Europe, not just Germany.

It’s an economy ten times the size of Russia, with a much larger population and much more advanced sophistication, which Scholz will likely communicate very clearly when they meet.

Any action before then is unlikely as it would be a huge insult both to Germany and to all of Europe, to see how this meeting unfolds.

Meanwhile, some six Russian warships are heading for the Black Sea amid rumors the UK may be supplying anti-ship missiles to Ukraine.

The British Foreign Secretary is due to meet her Russian counterpart tomorrow as the Norman format continues in Berlin.

All this so that Ukraine can continue to be a democracy, with a European-style rule of law and many other things as befits a European country, with a recent poll suggesting that the majority of EU citizens are favorable to his defence.

The Poles are even in favor of entering it, if there is an incursion, probably because otherwise they would be next because they would be surrounded by Russian troops in Belarus, Kalingrad and what would then also be Ukraine .

Such an incursion can also destabilize Romania, as well as Hungary and Slovakia, perhaps also the Balkans and you get quite a mess all the way as the Russian population is a little fed up with decades of fighting in Syria, in Libya, now in Mali, previously in Chechnya, in Georgia, in Moldova, and they even briefly sent troops to Kazakhstan.

Extending what already looks like a very extended army to Ukraine seems misleading, which is why some think it’s just Russia trying to force Europe and the United States to talk to them, when before they didn’t really want it because Putin was antagonistic and a destabilizing force in Europe.

But if he just wants talks you expect the troops to land on February 15 with a somewhat sad situation for Russia they need to present ships that are shorter than their tables to even bring in rich European countries to talk to them.

It could have been different of course, but Putin effectively pulled off a coup by seizing power never to relinquish it again, Europe being fooled at the time into thinking things could get better, so they were only getting worse.

And now what was, and hopefully still is, great peace for all of Europe and even growing prosperity for Russia, has turned into what was not easily predicted and would have been laughable, talks about a potential war with Russia in Europe itself.

It is the tragic and treacherous transformation you get when the people have no say in the direction of their country in free and fair elections because deceived old men keep thinking they are still young and in touch, as they destroy their country and the livelihoods of young people.