Despite Russia’s lack of convincing military successes in Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin believes he can win his war against the country – even if it means years of conflict. The current concentration of Russian forces on Donetsk and Luhansk may seem to suggest that he has abandoned his goal of conquering all Ukrainian territory, but this is not the case. He can sell the occupation of Donbass to a domestic audience as a kind of victory and even agree to hold peace talks with Ukraine after that. However, this would only be an intermediate step in his quest to control Ukraine. Therefore, Russia will continue to attack the country as long as it has the military and economic resources to do so. And he may be able to sustain the campaign for several years.

The only thing that can prevent Putin from continuing the war and extending it to other European countries is a military defeat in Ukraine. This is no longer an unimaginable result: for almost three months of war, the Russian army had only limited success in southern and eastern Ukraine, but suffered substantial losses of manpower. labor and equipment. Under pressure from the Ukrainian army, he was forced to withdraw from Kyiv and other parts of the north. In recent weeks, the army has carried out a successful counter-offensive near Kharkiv. Many Ukrainian and foreign experts and officials predict that with sufficient military and economic support, Ukraine will be victorious.

There is no doubt that the gradual increase in military, economic and humanitarian aid from Western countries has played an important role in Ukraine’s success. But now is the time for them to finally believe that Ukraine can achieve victory without ceding its sovereignty or any of its territories to Russia. Ukraine will have to defeat Putin if there is to be lasting peace in Europe. Russia’s military aggression in Georgia, Moldova, Syria and Ukraine has shown the folly of attempts to appease Putin with concessions. Accordingly, the West’s new approach to dealing with the Russian threat should involve the following measures.

Military support.NATO countries are almost out of Soviet-designed military equipment they can supply to Ukraine. Therefore, they should provide the Ukrainian army with Western-made equipment and training to use it as soon as possible. Fortunately, the Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act recently signed by US President Joe Biden creates many opportunities for such support.

For the few years that Russia will have the resources to support its war against Ukraine, the Ukrainian military will have to switch to using the armaments of NATO countries, many of which are technically superior to their Russian counterparts. Ukraine is already receiving desperately needed long-range artillery, including US M777 howitzers and HIMARS M142 multiple launch rocket systems. The next step should be to supply modern air defense systems (like the American Patriot or the Norwegian NASAMS), fighters (like the American F-16 or F-15, or the European-made Eurofighter Typhoon), vehicles unmanned aerial vehicles (like the American MQ-9 Reaper) and tanks (like the American M1 Abrams, the British Challenger 2, the French Leclerc or the German Leopard 2). If a few weeks ago Ukrainians could only see such weapons in their dreams, the US Lend-Lease Law could make it a reality – removing many restrictions on the supply of US military equipment .

Political support. The European Union is expected to grant Ukraine candidate status in June, when it is due to issue a preliminary opinion on the matter. Over the past few years, Ukraine has implemented a record number of reforms and fulfilled 63 percent of its obligations under its Association Agreement with the EU. Moreover, in some respects Ukraine is already ahead of several EU member states. For example, Ukraine took decisive steps towards digitization and became the first country to give equal status to electronic and traditional documents – a move that became particularly important during the war, as many citizens lost access to paper documents.

It should not be forgotten that the EU would benefit from Ukraine’s membership. Economically, Ukraine can provide relatively low-cost labor and efficient logistics to relocate production, allowing the EU economy to become more competitive. While the EU has a competitive advantage in the production of capital goods, Ukraine specializes in the production of raw materials and intermediate goods. In this sense, the two economies are complementary.

Ukraine is also the key to post-war European security. The country far exceeded expectations in resisting the Russian military offensive. It now has the most experienced army in Europe, which could help the EU defend its borders. The new military tactics used by the Ukrainian army have hypnotized its international supporters. However, as these tactics rely heavily on Western intelligence and weaponry, it is crucial that this support continues.

The EU can constantly invoke European values, but Ukraine has actually fought for them. Indeed, the country has made great sacrifices in the name of these values. In international relations, appeals to morality rarely have much effect. But, if European values ​​really matter to the EU, as Brussels says, it should support Ukraine’s membership in the most effective way possible.

Economic support. Ukraine’s economic losses due to Russian aggression already amount to more than $600 billion. To cope with the economic consequences of the war, Ukraine will need overwhelming international support comparable to that of the Marshall Plan. But such a plan will be impossible to implement without a lasting peace – not just a ceasefire.

As the conflict rages, world leaders should develop and implement a comprehensive plan for economic assistance to Ukraine. This should include not only cash payments to maintain macroeconomic stability, but also investments in companies far from the front line – through measures such as cheap loans to Ukrainian entrepreneurs, the approval of a proposal to suspend EU import duties on Ukrainian products and increase Ukraine’s Trade Quotas with the EU.

Increasing economic pressure on Russia. The West should rely on its attempts to suppress Putin’s regime through economic means. According to Josep Borrell, High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, the EU spent about 1 billion euros per day on Russian energy. At the same time, Russia spent almost 860 million euros a day on the war. Therefore, a complete embargo on Russian energy imports would be the EU’s most important step to date towards halting Russian aggression. The Union has the capacity to do this while managing the consequences for the economies of its Member States.

Another important step is to step up sanctions against Russia. All Russian banks should be barred from SWIFT, all Russian ships should be banned from entering Western ports, and any Western company operating in Russia should pay additional taxes in their country. Doing business in Russia should not only be politically toxic (as it is now), but also unprofitable.

Ukraine’s partners, including NATO leaders, have already recognized that he can win this war. However, they will have to support the country as long as Putin prolongs the conflict. Russia has greater military and economic resources than Ukraine. But it cannot compete with the resources of the West, especially if it is burdened with heavy sanctions. By offering guarantees of long-term support for Ukraine, the West would bring victory that much closer to the country – and to itself.

Margaryta Khvostova, Olga Lymar and Denys Davydenko are members of the Reanimation Package of Reforms Coalition, a leading coalition of 26 Ukrainian NGOs established after the 2014 Dignity Revolution. The fourth author of this commentary cannot be named for reasons security reasons.