On Friday, US officials warned any US citizen in Ukraine to evacuate as soon as possible because intelligence information suggested a Russian invasion of the country was imminent.

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According to State Department officials, the White House believes Russia could invade Ukraine at any time and announced on Friday that it had ordered all diplomatic personnel to leave the US embassy in Kyiv.

Why does the United States think an invasion is imminent, and what will happen if it does? Here’s what we know now.

First, where is Ukraine?

Ukraine is located in Eastern Europe and is the second largest country in this region after Russia.

Ukraine shares borders with Russia (to the east and northeast); Belarus (to the north); Poland, Slovakia and Hungary (to the west); and Romania and Moldova to the south. It has coastlines along the Black Sea and the Sea of ​​Azov.

Why is Putin interested in Ukraine?

Ukraine was once part of the Soviet Union before the collapse of the superpower in 1991.

Putin has said he wants the country to be part of Russia again, saying Ukrainians and Russians are “one people, one whole”.

However, what Putin appears to be doing is trying to get assurances from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that Ukraine will not join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which Putin says would constitute a threat to Russian security.

As talk of Ukraine’s ambitions to join NATO grew, Putin issued a list of demands on the situation, saying he opposed “the endless expansion, in our view , and very dangerous from NATO to the East”. Putin demanded a guarantee that NATO will not allow Ukraine to become a member.

In addition, he wants NATO to reduce or eliminate military exercises in Ukraine and other former Soviet bloc states. Putin is also asking NATO to withdraw around 5,000 troops sent to Poland and the Baltic states after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014.

Will Russia invade Ukraine?

Russia says it has no intention of attacking Ukraine, saying such talk is “dangerous lies” spread by the West.

However, Russia invaded part of Ukraine in 2014 and annexed Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula, claiming that historically the peninsula was part of Russia.

An estimated 100,000 Russian troops are currently seated near the Ukrainian border and another 30,000 are taking part in military exercises in Belarus, just under 700 miles from that country’s border with Ukraine.

These military exercises are organized in response to the threat the West poses to Russian security, according to Russian officials. It was also reported that Russian ships approached the Ukrainian coasts on the Black Sea and the Sea of ​​Azov.

Also, Russia is moving S-400 surface-to-air missile systems to Belarus, according to reports. Since Belarus also borders NATO members Poland, Latvia and Lithuania, Western officials have expressed concern that a conflict in the region would draw in NATO and trigger Article 5 which stipulates that if one of the NATO members is attacked, it will be considered an attack on all. NATO members.

Is Ukraine part of NATO?

No, Ukraine is not part of NATO, but it is a NATO “partner country” and discussions are ongoing regarding the country’s membership in the military alliance.

A partner country works with NATO on “common cross-cutting security challenges such as cyber defence, counter-terrorism, non-proliferation and resilience”, according to the organization.

Will Ukraine become a member of NATO?

Ukraine is unlikely to become a NATO member anytime soon, but it is the fact that Ukraine could become a NATO member that worries Putin.

Last June, President Joe Biden said the country did not meet NATO admission standards, especially since it had not made enough progress in the fight against political corruption.

In 2008, a NATO summit agreed that Ukraine and Georgia, also a former Soviet satellite country, would join, but neither country received an action plan for membership or the necessary steps. to move toward membership, the Washington Post reported.

What would happen if Russia invaded Ukraine?

If Putin invades the country, President Biden has promised that the United States will launch economic sanctions against Russia, which would include sanctions against banks, state-owned enterprises, major imports and possibly individuals.

Biden also said that if an attack occurs, the United States and NATO would consider increasing their presence in Eastern Europe.

If Putin decided to attack, US military intelligence estimates that 25,000 to 50,000 civilians would be killed or injured, and between 3,000 and 10,000 Russian troops and between 5,000 and 25,000 Ukrainian troops would be killed or injured.

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